OrtoClima Method
OrtoClima turns public data and crop rules into local guidance for sowing, transplanting, harvest timing, and climate risk. This page explains what is calculated, what the numbers mean, and where the model's reliability ends.
Climate years used
The main climate calculations use the 1991-2020 climate normal. That 30-year period is long enough to reduce single-season noise while still describing recent climate patterns.
When a table stops at 2020, it means that table belongs to the 1991-2020 historical base used for profiles, percentiles, and simulations. The NASA POWER series configured for the model ends on December 31, 2020. Later years can be used in specific views only when the available series is coherent and complete for that indicator.
Frost and thresholds
For each year, OrtoClima finds the last daily minimum at or below the threshold between January 1 and June 30. The median date is the 50th percentile of those yearly dates. The cautious date is the 80th percentile, designed for sensitive crops and later-frost years.
The 0 °C threshold means clear frost in the historical series. The 2 °C threshold is more cautious: it covers cold nights when inversions, exposure, containers, low ground, or wet soil can still damage plants even if the representative weather point does not fall below zero.
Probability and reliability
Success probability is successful simulated years divided by evaluable years. A window is recommended from 0.8 upward, meaning at least 80% of evaluable years; from 0.5 to 0.8 it remains a risky window. It is not a forecast for the next weekend.
The simulation checks crop requirements, soil temperature, night minimums, frost risk until maturity, heat, and dry spells. If a page shows “data reliability: 0.8”, the weakest local window used in that summary has an estimated 80% success rate across evaluable years. It is a historical robustness indicator, not a guarantee.
When reliability refers to climate data for the municipality, the value comes from the share of complete years in the 1991-2020 normal. A value of 1.0 means 30 complete years; 0.8 means 24 complete years out of 30.
Sources
- NASA POWER Daily API: temperature, rainfall, radiation, and soil temperature.
- ISTAT municipalities: administrative registry.
- ISTAT geographic statistics: 2021 municipal altimetry and altitude bands.
- GeoNames: representative geographic point used to connect the municipality to weather data.
- OrtoClima crop rules: internal thresholds for crop, starting method, harvest timing, and risk.
Local limits
The representative weather point is not your garden. It is useful for estimating the average municipal climate, but it cannot see walls, exposure, valleys, slope, shade, irrigation, soil type, containers, mulch, or temporary protection.
In large municipalities or places with strong altitude differences, two gardens can behave differently. Use OrtoClima pages as a planning base: the next few days' forecast and direct soil observation remain decisive.
Review and error reports
A page has been reviewed by a person only when it shows an explicit editorial review note with a date or newsroom note. If that wording is absent, treat the content as automatically generated from derived tables and controlled project copy.
To report an error, write to [email protected] with the page URL, municipality, crop or month involved, the suspicious data, and, when possible, a source or verifiable local observation.